In the next decade, all phones will be smartphones and they won't break your bank.
One hundred years from now, when people recall the $500 plus smartphone era, they’ll exclaim, “You paid what? Why?”
Within the next decade, possibly even
within the next five years, all phones will be smartphones. And they
will be cheap—as in $19 or less. Here’s why:
The Software Phone is Here
People have to realize that the smartphone architecture has no moving parts and thus becomes a completely software-driven product. The screen should be the most expensive part, and other components, like the cheap radio, processor, support circuitry, memory, and the speaker and mic, should be relatively cheap in quantity. The real value and complexity of a smartphone will be determined by the software. This is one of the realizations that got Microsoft into the phone game. It knows that, at the end of the day, it’s the software that counts and it is a software company.
People have to realize that the smartphone architecture has no moving parts and thus becomes a completely software-driven product. The screen should be the most expensive part, and other components, like the cheap radio, processor, support circuitry, memory, and the speaker and mic, should be relatively cheap in quantity. The real value and complexity of a smartphone will be determined by the software. This is one of the realizations that got Microsoft into the phone game. It knows that, at the end of the day, it’s the software that counts and it is a software company.
When you think about it, these
smartphones are really software phones. You could reprogram to an
extreme, with different keyboards for different languages. The
possibilities are limitless. I’m surprised that we have yet to see
completely re-engineered smartphones. Why can’t I take an unlocked Nexus
S and turn it into something totally different, with a whole new look
and feel insofar as the display and workings are concerned? This is a
slightly different approach than adding apps; it’s like re-writing the
executive of an OS.
The Idea of a “Blank” Phone
Companies know this is possible, along with complete OS upgrades. For the most part, phones get upgraded software. Just imagine an entirely new and alien OS installed on an Android phone the way a PC can switch from Windows to Linux. Perhaps a day will come where you can buy a phone without the OS and install any number of cool choices. Perhaps Microsoft should make Phone 7 available the same way it makes Windows available— as an installable product. We just need an infrastructure to do so.
Companies know this is possible, along with complete OS upgrades. For the most part, phones get upgraded software. Just imagine an entirely new and alien OS installed on an Android phone the way a PC can switch from Windows to Linux. Perhaps a day will come where you can buy a phone without the OS and install any number of cool choices. Perhaps Microsoft should make Phone 7 available the same way it makes Windows available— as an installable product. We just need an infrastructure to do so.
Now that would be great.
But back to today’s reality. The fact
is, it will be cheaper to build a phone around a touch screen with
virtual keypads than to make a mechanical device. The touch screen could
even be more reliable.
The Fashion Statement
The cheap, so-called “burner,” or
disposable phone, will only differ from a higher-end phone because of
the software and perhaps more memory and a better processor. That said,
you can be sure that the Google Nexus and the iPhone will be the cheap
burners of tomorrow. Who knows what a high-end phone will be like? Maybe
not much different from today’s, which makes the money-making aspect of
the better phones more dubious. Perhaps it will purely become a fashion
accessory—a trend Apple seems intent on exploiting.
But exactly how fashionable can a mobile phone ever really be?
Currently, only the expensive screen
prevents the eventuality of this concept. I plan to grab a front seat
and watch which companies will survive a shake out when each and every
phone starts from the touch screen paradigm. I expect to see a lot of
colors other than black.
And, hopefully, as things progress, a “blank” phone, as described above, will become a reality.
Copyright © 2010 Ziff Davis Publishing Holdings Inc.
Source: The Future of the Phone
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